Table 1 summarizes the initial assumptions that have been made to predict the fate and transport of the two oil leaks. Four different scenarios (see Table 2) have been implemented to produce the OPL-Bulletin, considering different input data sets with different space-time resolution, forecast temporal horizon and update frequency.

  SPILL n.1: Caliph prospect SPILL n.2: Messina Strait
Oil drillship position LAT = 33° 13.58’ N

LON= 15° 54.30’ E

LAT = 38° 14.84’ N

LON = 15° 37.94’ E

Start date and time (UTC) of the leak 27th of July 2014 at 05:05:45 28th of July between 06:15:00 and 10:20:00
Type of oil Crude oil

API 26 (SCENARIO 1)

API 33 (SCENARIO 2-3-4)

Diesel fuel oil

API 40 (SCENARIO 1)

API 33 (SCENARIO 2-3-4)

Duration of spillage 5 hours Oil spill from 6:15 up to 10:20 (4 hours)
Rate of spillage

 

10 tons/hour for an estimated
Total amount of oil spilled 50 Tons 2000 Tons

Tab. 1 Initial assumptions made to predict the fate and transport of the two oil spills, the Caliph Prospect and the Messina Straight.

 

SCENARIO 1 2 3 4
Production Centre INGV UCY UCY UCY
Oil spill model MEDSLIK II MEDSLIK MEDSLIK MEDSLIK
WIND

temporal resolution

spatial resolution

days of forecast

update frequency

ECMWF SKIRON ECMWF POSEIDON
6 1 24 1
25 5 25 5
5 10 10 5
1 1 1 1
CURRENTS and SST

temporal resolution

spatial resolution

days of forecast

update frequency

CMEMS CMEMS CMEMS CMEMS
1 24 24 1
6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5
5 10 10 5
1 1 1 1
WAVES

temporal resolution

spatial resolution

days of forecast

update frequency

CYCOFOS CYCOFOS
3
10 5
5 5
1 1

Tab. 2 Prediction systems implemented to produce the OPL-Bulletin results.

Two reports were produced for the two spills separately considering the SCENARIO N.1 (see Table 2):

  1. EMODNET_OPL_SPILLn1_SCENARIOn1.pdf
  2. EMODNET_OPL_SPILLn2_SCENARIOn1.pdf

A third report was produced in parallel by OC-UCY containing predictions of the two spills considering three different scenarios (see Table 2 SCENARIO N.2, 3 and 4):

  1. EMODNET_OPL_SPILLn1n2_SCENARIOn2n3n4.pdf